{"id":17272,"date":"2025-10-17T16:00:02","date_gmt":"2025-10-17T14:00:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.wu.ac.at\/2025\/10\/quo-vadis-trump\/"},"modified":"2025-10-29T14:41:38","modified_gmt":"2025-10-29T13:41:38","slug":"quo-vadis-trump","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.wu.ac.at\/en\/2025\/10\/quo-vadis-trump\/","title":{"rendered":"Quo vadis, Donald Trump?"},"content":{"rendered":"

October 15, 2025. Just under a year after the start of Donald Trump\u2019s second term in office, we brought together a group of expert panelists to discuss the economic and geopolitical repercussions of recent US policies under the second Trump administration as part of our WU matters. WU talks.<\/strong> series. Speaking to an audience of over 250, Harald Oberhofer, professor of empirical economics at WU Vienna, Eric Frey, a political scientist and senior editor at the daily Der Standard, and Velina Tchakarova, founder of FACE and a visiting fellow at the Observer Research Foundation, took a closer look at how Donald Trump\u2019s unpredictable leadership style has been affecting trade, international relations, and democratic institutions.<\/p>\n

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“I\u2019m not tired anymore \u2013 I\u2019m thoroughly exhausted.\u201d<\/strong><\/h2>\n<\/blockquote>\n

With these words, Prof. Harald Oberhofer opened the evening. Oberhofer is an economist specializing in international trade, and with his opening statement, he highlighted the constant strain that Trump\u2019s policies are placing on international commerce and the international economy. Normally, as Oberhofer pointed out, geopolitical events such as Brexit or new trade agreements have a ripple effect on global trade: After two days of intense debate, attention wanes and the economy returns to business as usual. \u201cBut with Trump\u2019s volatile decisions, things are different,\u201d Oberhofer continued. For the past nine months, observing international trade policy has been akin to taking a ride in a washing machine.<\/p>\n

This unpredictability poses existential challenges for companies: \u201cWhat\u2019s the right course of action to take when the world might look completely different two days from now?\u201d Trump\u2019s tariffs on specific countries, goods, and industries, such as the ones imposed on steel and aluminum, for example, but also on furniture and wood, are an expression of his America First<\/em> strategy. Seeing as tariffs on kitchen furniture can hardly be justified on the grounds of national security, Oberhofer said they were a clear sign that Trump is not taking Europe seriously. One of the conclusions was that there are no certainties with the 47th president of the United States. The only thing that does not surprise anybody anymore is his leadership style.<\/p>\n

\"v.l.n.r.:

Quo vadis, Donald Trump? Taking stock a year into the second term.<\/p><\/div>\n

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\u201cTo me, Trump is a geopolitical arsonist<\/strong>\u201d<\/h2>\n<\/blockquote>\n

Velina Tchakarova analyzed the geopolitical aspects of the Trump era. \u201cI regard Trump as a geopolitical arsonist,\u201d she said. The Trump administration is now pursuing the goal of US supremacy more fiercely than ever before, as evidenced by its confrontation with China. As Tchakarova noted, \u201cThis has long since developed into a non-military, open trade war.\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n

Trump is flexing his muscles in foreign, security, and defense policy, but he is becoming increasingly autocratic in his leadership. He insults top EU officials when they come to visit him in the Oval Office, relegating them to the couch while talking at them from behind his desk as if he was giving them a schooling, as Tchakarova pointed out. \u201cThis is all about symbolic politics: an end to diplomacy and international norms as we knew and understood them,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n

Her assessment is clear: \u201cWe\u2019ve not reached rock bottom yet.<\/strong> The last nine months were just a taste of what\u2019s to come. Unfortunately, European policymakers are still in denial,\u201d she said. Harald Oberhofer shares this opinion. He believes that any efforts at escalating trade policy are already four months too late.<\/p>\n

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\u201eTrump wants to be like Putin \u2026 or at least like Erdo\u011fan<\/strong>\u201c<\/h2>\n<\/blockquote>\n

Eric Frey looked at Trump\u2019s domestic policy. \u201cTrump wants to be like Putin \u2026 or at least like Erdo\u011fan. [\u2026] The president thinks he\u2019s surrounded by enemies and would like to be a dictator,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

The central question of the discussion was: How serious is the threat to US democracy?\u00a0With regard to the Republican \u201cProject 2025,\u201d which envisages a complete restructuring of the executive branch and the government departments and aims to attack the freedom of the press, Frey warned of authoritarian tendencies. Nevertheless, he was cautiously optimistic in his outlook: \u201cTrump is anything but systematic in his actions, he\u2019s resistant to advice, and he\u2019s unpredictable.\u201d According to Frey, these traits are precisely what could help save democracy in the US for the time being, even if the political turmoil continues.<\/p>\n

What do you think<\/strong>?<\/h2>\n

One year into Donald Trump\u2019s second term in office, it is clear that the world remains in upheaval, caught between economic uncertainty, geopolitical power games, and institutional tensions.<\/p>\n

Watch the full discussion here:<\/strong><\/h2>\n